By Patrick Gerard Healy  

  GLOBE CORRESPONDENT   

     John Kerry may have an automatic win in Massachusetts, but a look at voter registration trends over a 20-year period shows a marked drop in the share of voters registered as Democrats in Boston and Somerville. A big upswing in ''unenrolled," or independent voters, has taken their place.  

     According to voter registration records, registered Democrats dropped from 68 percent of Boston voters to 52 percent in 2002, the most recent year for which computerized records were available. Independent voters went up, from 24 percent to 39 percent.  

     Somerville was close behind, with a drop in registered Democrats from 66 percent to 53 percent and a similar increase in independents, while Republican numbers in Boston, Cambridge, Somerville, and Brookline remained basically the same.  

     Secretary of State William F. Galvin said that the effect of those numbers on Democrats' election chances is probably fairly limited, as most independents in Boston seem to vote Democratic in federal elections.  

     ''The fact that they're federal Democrats tells me their instincts tend to be Democratic," he said of the independents. ''On the other hand, they have been open to voting for Republicans, especially in voting for governor."  

     Geraldine Cuddyer, chairman of Boston's Board of Election Commissioners, said she isn't sure that the decrease of registered Democrats and increase in independents are correlated.  

     ''I don't think it's clearly cut-and-dry," she said. ''I would have no way of knowing how the numbers are going to break until election night."  

     At a minimum, though, the numbers do show a Greater Boston electorate with less party loyalty.  

     ''I would say it seems like a lot of people want to be listed as independent so they can vote the way they want on the elections they want to vote on," said Artis Spears, chairman of the Elections Commission in Cambridge, where the percentage of registered Democrats went down 5 points since 1982 and the percentage of independents up by an identical amount.  

     Nicholas P. Salerno, chairman of the Somerville Board of Elections Commissioners, said about 1,000 people came into City Hall earlier this month on the deadline day to register to vote in the general election, and he noticed many of the forms checked ''unenrolled."  

     ''I can't ask a person why they're doing it," he said. ''But it's interesting because it's not specific to academic types or anything. It's right across the board."  

     Rusty Drugan, secretary of the Elections Commission in Cambridge, has seen similar results.  

     ''We're part of a national trend toward a wish to be independent of either political party," he said, ''and perhaps the disaffection with a party and a willingness to look at candidates regardless of their party is what has caused this."  

     While the Republican Party lost 15,000 registered voters statewide between 2002 and this year, according to figures from the Secretary of State's Office, the longer 20-year trend in Boston, Somerville, Cambridge, and Brookline shows that Democrats suffered even greater losses over that time, as more checked ''unenrolled."  

     In those 20 years, Cambridge saw no change in the percentage of registered Republicans, and Somerville saw a one-point increase. The Republican change was small because Republicans in Cambridge are already at ''an irreducible minimum," said Drugan.  

     ''The GOP has sort of maintained itself as a pitchfork mob," said Fred Baker, Cambridge's Republican City Committee chairman. ''It's almost an underground movement in this city."  

     He noted that the Democratic majority can be ''a little bit hostile here in the land of diversity and tolerance. A Bush sign on your lawn wouldn't last overnight."  

     In Cambridge, Democrats lost five precentage points over the 20 years, from 60 to 55 percent, and independents were up, from 32 to 37 percent.  

     Somerville Democratic Chairman Helen Corrigan argues that the one-point increase of Republicans in Somerville may not be a landmark, but it's significant. And she said the increase in independents is significant.  

     ''I think it's a lot of newcomers," she said, ''and I think we probably have more people than we have ever had before voting Republican because we have more high-income people coming in. People are paying $800,000 for houses here. This is not your typical Somerville resident that has been here for years."  

     Galvin said it's mostly younger voters who are independent.  

     ''It was the World War II generation that was largely affiliated with parties, whether it be because of unions or employment," he said, ''but as their population has declined, their children are more reluctant to affiliate."  

     Some younger voters said they have never registered as a Democrat or Republican.  

     ''I registered as an independent because identifying yourself with a particular political party says to me that you're always going to support or vote with that party," said Scott Janovitz, 29, of Somerville. ''I wouldn't want to align myself that absolutely with a set doctrine when the issues are so complex."  

     To be sure, some voters have moved the other way. ''I had always been left-leaning, but under the Clinton years it didn't seem as pressing to be a card-carrying member of the Democratic party," said Daniel Brockman, also of Somerville. ''But being 31 now, and especially for this election, I felt it was kind of important to back the Democrats."  

     In Brookline in 2002, 4,412 residents were registered as Republicans, 19,189 as Democrats, and 18,984 as independents. While the percentages changed little since 1982, Brookline now has almost as many independents as Democrats.  

     With a difference of 205 registered voters between the two groups, the town has one of the narrowest gaps in enrollment between Democrats and independents in Greater Boston.  

     Galvin sees a danger in younger voters forgoing party affiliation.  

     ''As fewer people participate by voting as party members," he said, ''it leaves the party activity to party members . . . who are more ideologically centered right or left depending on the party, and then Democrats are more and more liberal and Republicans are more and more conservative."   

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